The Bureau of Meteorology has released its projection on what we can expect this winter season.
Much of the country experienced warmer and drier-than-average conditions throughout autumn and those conditions are predicted to continue into winter.
The outlook suggests winter rainfall is likely to be below average for Northern Victoria, with a particularly strong shift towards drier conditions around the Murray Darling Basin.
The area is predicted to experience a 70 to 80 per cent chance of below-average rainfall.
Daytime and overnight temperatures across Victoria are likely to be warmer than average.
Australia’s main climate drivers, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently in a neutral phase, meaning there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions.
Bureau climatologist Jonathan Pollock said when ENSO and IOD are neutral, other climate drivers had a greater influence.
‘‘We’re expecting warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Tasman Sea this winter and associated lower-than-normal air pressure,’’ Mr Pollock said.
‘‘This would mean a weakening of westerly winds over southern Australia that normally draw cold fronts up from the Southern Ocean.’’
Mr Pollock said snowfall would also be of particular interest as we head into winter.
‘‘Snowfall is difficult to predict over long timeframes, but the dry outlook for June suggests a later-than-normal start for the snow season,’’ he said.
‘‘However, when ENSO and IOD are neutral we have historically seen deeper-than-average snow cover by mid-season.’’